What it does
- Monte Carlo simulation of bankroll trajectories from your winrate, standard deviation and hand count.
- Distribution of maximum downswings: how deep the worst stretch realistically gets.
- Longest losing-run estimates, so a two-week slump stops feeling like a mystery.
- Instant visual: dozens of simulated lives overlaid on one chart.
How to use it
- Enter your winrate (bb/100), standard deviation and the number of hands you plan to play.
- Run the simulation and look at the worst curves, not the best ones.
- Size your bankroll so the worst realistic downswing doesn't end your career.
A common rule of thumb is 20–50 buy-ins for cash games — but seeing your own numbers beats memorizing anyone's rule. Run my simulation →
Related tools: the equity calculator for hand-vs-range math, and hand history review to find out whether that downswing was variance or a leak.
